Joel Smalley's Mathematical Analyses of England's Pandemic Death Patterns

All of the following charts (except for the captions added below each chart) are from Joel Smalley's Video Interview: Pandemic Time Series Data and Analytics of England's Death Data

Reveals COVID deaths Plus Increased Deaths in following Lockdowns and COVID Vaccination

Joel Smalley Ln of England's Weekly Deaths 2015 to 2019
Yearly England Seasonal Ln Death Patterns.  2015 to 2018

Notice, in the chart above, the natural log of deaths declines to the same lower baseline level during summer months.

Joel Smalley Ln of England's Weekly Deaths from 2020 to 2021
Yearly England Ln Death Pattern. January 2020 to February 2021

Notice, in the chart above, the new raised baseline level (blue line) of England's deaths are most likely due to lack of medical care for non-COVID medical conditions and other consequences of lock downs.

Joel Smalley England's Deaths from March to July 2020
March to July 2020
Model of England's Expected Seasonal COVID deaths vs. Actual COVID deaths vs. Excess Deaths from all Causes

Notice, in the chart above, from March to July 2020, lock downs may have saved (54,169 model COVID deaths - 49,583 actual COVID deaths = 4,586 COVID deaths)  but lockdowns may have caused (55,123 total actual deaths from all causes - 54,169 model COVID deaths  =   954 deaths).

Joel Smalley England's Weekly Deaths from November 2020 to March 2021
November 20 to February/March
80+, Care Homes, England, COVID-19 Vaccinations and Deaths

Notice, in the charts above, vaccinations (blue line in 2 left charts) are correlated with a new spike in Deaths

Joel Smalley England's Excess Deaths from COVID, Lockdowns, and COVID Vaccinations
England's Excess Deaths March 2020 to February 2021
Due to COVID (blue), Denial of Healthcare/Lockdowns (green), and Unexplained (orange)

Notice, in the chart above, a new spike in England's excess deaths beginning in January, 2021 corresponds to the implementation of COVID-19 vaccinations in England.

Other work by Joel Smalley

Video: England Mortality Analysis. Jan 30, 2021 Joel Smalley  An update on mortality in England for the last year or so in the context of the last 20, obviously focussed on the impact of COVID-19 and the appearance of something rather peculiar in the first couple of weeks of 2021.

 Deaths by date of registration or occurrence. Which one should you use? Dec 1, 2020


COVID 19 Summary 24th November 2020 Joel Smalley  A phlegmatic review of the COVID situation in England using empirical data available up to 24th November.   

Some of Joel Smalley's work is also shown here in Evidence Not Fear Referenced and sourced COVID-19 information